Trade talk for M's not the point

Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman? It gets worse for the Mariners. Word is the Angels are aiming to land George Sherrill (remember him?) before the Thursday night deadline to shore up their bullpen. 

Brutal. Forget not just this summer but next season too. Anyone talking 2010 at the earliest for Seattle--ESPN's Buster Olney did just that on KJR-AM 950 Tuesday--has got the right idea. Just pencil in Bryan LaHair, Jeff Clement and every other promising kid you can find into the everyday lineup. Get Ryan Roland Smith up here in the rotation, and do whatever is needed to get Brandon Morrow ready for 2009 (and, more importantly, 2010). Forget that winter ball idea for Morrow, do it now.

And then back up the truck. Trade Adrian Beltre if any decent prospects come out of it. JJ Putz? Go, trade. Raul Ibanez, gracefully, but, yes, trade him too. 

Miguel Cairo is a pro's pro, but it's time to release him. He will catch on with a pennant contender by Sept. 1. 

And, never thought I would say this, but now that Ichiro has reached 3,000 hits in Japan/USA, make a deal if there is one out there. If not, make one this winter.

There's no looking back...2010 here we come.

Cahill Doing Well Since Bump

Trevor Cahill wins.

The 20-year-old A's prospect has gone 5-1 2.25 for the Midland RockHounds since his promotion to AA. This includes a win in a relief appearance against the San Antonio Missions on July 11. Billy Beane must be happy with Cahill, who is a combined 10-5 this year.

Ironically, Cahill has won at Midland despite struggling somewhat with his command. Not to worry. Cahill still has racked up nearly twice as many strikeouts (29) as walks (15), averaging more than 8 Ks per 9 innings of work. This means he has been merely good as opposed to outstanding, since the promotion.

As prospect watchers and keeper league stat geeks know, Cahill is an extreme groundball pitcher in the Brandon Webb mold. He does not pitch to contact; when a batter does make contact, the ball usually gets pounded into the ground. As baseball fans and physicists know, it's difficult to hit a ground ball over the fence.

Along with former D-Backs' farmhand Brett Anderson, also 20, the righty Cahill gives the RockHounds a strong starting rotation. The team, however, is a mediocre 16-18 in the second half for the A's organization. Midland was 34-36 in the first half of Texas League action.

A pair of 21-year-old righthanders, Vincent Mazzaro (10-5 2.08) and James Simmons (5-6 3.57) have anchored the RockHounds rotation this year. The organization sent down 21-year-old righty Henry Rodriguez (1-6 8.82) to iron out some obvious control issues. Rodriguez, an undrafted free agent, does throw hard; he averaged over 9 Ks per 9 innings at Midland, and over 12 Ks per 9 with better control back at Hi-A in Stockton.

Simmons is repeating AA, but don't view that as a red flag. This is only his second minor league season. Simmons was a 2007 first-round pick out of Cal-Riverside, and pitched sparingly at Midland last year, with two spot starts.

Mazzaro is a 2005 third-rounder out of Rutherford High School in New Jersey, a school which produced one of the two Bobby Joneses toiling in the bigs in the late 1990s and early 00s. This was the Bobby Jones who, unfortunately, started his major league career in pre-humidor Colorado. Rutherford High also produced Pat Pacillo, who spent two seasons as a reliever and spot starter in Cincinnati in the 1980s.

With Cahill and Anderson, the A's have two good ones who might be ready to take a step up next year. While Cahill might need some time at AAA next year, Anderson is ready now.

The Second Half Surge Can Start Anytime Now

With tonight's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the A's have fallen to 1-5 since the Break. Nothing to be worried about yet, but one can't help but wonder when the team's patented second-half run will begin. The Angels of Anaheim pulled 10 games ahead of the Green and Gold with their 14-11 win over Cleveland. The longer this continues, the less likely it is the Angels will tinkle away a double-digit lead in the standings.

The A's are hitting a collective .208 after the Break, strange, given that they traded away starting pitchers. The pitching has not been bad. I can't pin this all on Daric Barton's head injury, since Barton wasn't exactly lights out before he went swimming. The A's have gone with Jack Hannahan and AAA call-up Wes Bankston at first these first few days. Experimentation has set in. Hitting cleanup on Tuesday was recent arrival Matt Murton, who up to that time was best described as a AAAA outfielder for the Cubbies.

I am always willing to give Billy the benefit of the doubt. But these recent trades of Harden and Blanton are beginning to look like the A's "white flag" trade.

Separated at Birth? Mariners' DH and Black Hole

During his new 1 to 3 p.m. time slot at KJR-AM 950 on the Seattle radio dial, Ian Furness has been turning out one solidly reported show after another. Today, as the Mariners and Felix Hernandez prepared for an afternoon game before another packed Safeco crowd, Furness laid down some brutal numbers: Seattle DHs--can you say, Jose Vidro?--are hitting under .200 and have a collective slugging percentage of .280. The HR/RBI stats were something like 5/25.

Whoa. Maybe the Mariners should consider trading for Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs ace who could pitch for them every fourth day and hit every day. Zambrano just broke Fergie Jenkins' all-time home run record for Cubs pitchers (Jenkins was a good hitter and played a lot more years to hit his 12 homers). The Big Z has hit five dingers in Houston alone.

Not that the Cubs would trade Zambrano, but maybe Seattle should see if any pitchers on their own roster might have some bat speed. Or maybe they could rescue Micah Owings from the Arizona bullpen. I mean, you could certainly add some intrigue to a dead-zone Mariners offense by trying out pitchers at DH. 

Of course, why should Seattle management about getting any production from the DH? Nearly 40,000 fans attended each game of the Indians-M's series over the weekend and the Bosox are packing in so many fans that it feels a lot like a home game for them.

OK, one positive to report: Bryan LaHair is getting his chance at first base. He will make the best of it, and fans will be mentally penciling him for the position in 2009. He grew up a Boston fan and was thrilled to get his first hit against the Red Sox on Tuesday. Better yet for M's fans: LaHair mentioned in post-game interviews that his "whole game plan" was to go deep into counts during Tuesday's game.

Duke's Imminent Collapse

RH Starter Justin Duchscherer has pitched admirably well this year. At the Break, Duke's stats stand out: 10-5, 1.82. He has exhibited great command and avoided the long ball. He is the classic low-cost Billy Beane acquisition. He is making just over a million bucks for the A's this year, not bad considering how much other teams pay for crap in this era.

But as long as the A's are dumping their pitching staff, they should sell high on Duke. His .213 BABIP will go up post-break. Duke has stranded 81 percent of men on base, a ratio that is likely to come down in the second half, meaning more runs and a higher ERA. I also see Duke's HRs allowed going up, as only 4% of fly balls have gone over the fence.

Duke has been lucky, but don't think that is a knock against him. He has got a great defense and pen behind him, and that counts for alot. It's just that luck has a way of evening out. Personally, I hope he goes 10-0 and 1.82 in the second half too. Chances are it will not happen. Duke now has to more or less anchor the A's staff, which speaks volumes about the new look A's. It will be a fun ride post-Break for the A's.

The Tough and Very Durable Exit of Joe Blanton

Well, that was interesting. As we all know, the A's traded SP Joe Blanton to the Phillies for three minor leaguers, in a move that appears to be more of a purge of their ML roster than an upgrade to their farm system.

Blanton is 5-12 4.96 at the time of the trade. All of his 2008 peripheral numbers were down. He toiled for the A's as your classic mid- to back-of-the-rotation starter, compiling a lifetime 47-46 record and a 4.25 ERA. He rarely, if ever, missed a start that I can recall. His 2008 salary is $3.7 million.

Contrary to what I thought no more than a month ago, the A's reportedly will call up SP Gio Gonzalez from Sacramento to fill the void in their rotation. They say Gonzalez has turned it around in AAA lately in his last four starts. If so, he will be a great addition to the A's rotation. For now, the A's have recalled Lenny DiNardo from Sacramento. The 28-year-old southpaw DiNardo was 6-3 4.09 with the RiverCats, displaying exceptional control with a 9.25 K-BB ratio.

How little did the A's get for Blanton? Well, I don't see any of these guys making The Show, and I'll just leave it at that. OF Matthew Spencer, 22, hit .320 9 26 last year at Williamsport in the short-season NY-Penn League. He has good power but was not a top prospect in that league. He doesn't exactly fit the A's mold, but plate discipline can be taught.

2B (Do the A's really need another one of these) Adrian Cardenas is a 20-year-old burner who is a little higher rated than Spencer. He has great OBP potential and extreme speed, stealing 16 bases this year without being caught. Last year with the Lakewood BlueClaws, Cardenas was .295 9 79, with 20 SB and 7 CS. Cardenas fields his position well. Cardenas was young for the Sallie League last year and for Hi-A this year, and that counts for much in the minors. He could help bridge the gap until Jemile Weeks is ready. Just a thought ...

Finally, the A's continued to stockpile LHPs by picking up minor league swingman Josh Outman in the Blanton deal. Outman is 5-4 3.20 with the Phils' Eastern League affiliate in Reading this year. Even last year, Outman toiled as a middling SP prospect with Clearwater in the Florida State League and Reading, where his performance predictably tailed off after a late-season promotion. Outman throws hard, but has control issues.

With these acquisitions, it's hard to see the Blanton deal as anything more than a salary dump. Pat Gillick is no slouch. As a GM, he can deal with the best salesman's spiel Billy Beane can offer. He dumped Unit, A-Rod and The Kid and built the Mariners into a 116-win squad not that long ago. So it's obvious someone in the Phillies' organization thinks they can turn around the Bulldog's lost season.

It's less obvious what the A's see in their latest collection of prospects.

A Harden Decision

Not much that your humble narrator can add with respect to the Rich Harden deal. The Cubs certainly look like the class of the NL this year, and more power to them. Jim Hendry, Lou Piniella and Company obviously feel Harden is the kind of impact pitcher who can help bring Chicago a World Series winner. The A's have now purged their roster of their three superior pitching aces (Hudson-Mulder-Zito) and The Man Who Would Be The Fourth Ace, Harden.

These new-era A's still reflect the character of their GM, Billy Beane, more so than any other team in baseball does theirs. The annual mid-year Beane Fire Sale brought in, as everyone must know, RHP Sean Gallagher, AAAA OFs Matt Murton and Eric Patterson, and Minor League C Josh Donaldson.

Make no mistake. Gallagher will be a great addition to the A's staff. He will win many games with this team. He was painted as a pitcher with average stuff, but a quick glance at his stats reveals excellent peripherals: 2.23 K/W ratio, 7.52 Ks per 9 innings, .92 HRs per 9. His basic stats are 3-4 4.45. Gallagher has been somewhat unlucky in getting bullpen help, but the peripherals are there.

Donaldson played in the short-season Northwest League Boise Hawks last year, when I had ranked him as the top position player prospect in that league. This year, he moved up to the Class A Midwest League Peoria Chiefs, where the A's had plenty of opportunity to scout him against their own Kane County Cougars. His stats have tailed off: .217 6 23. His power has dropped to league-average at Peoria, and he has lost his considerable plate discipline. The only thing he has improved is his contact rate. Donaldson has good speed for a catcher. He has thrown out nearly 40 percent of runners attempting to steal.

Although the A's have Kurt Suzuki behind the plate, one would like to see Donaldson regain his power stroke and advance through the A's system. So what if he's lost almost .200 points of OBP this year? It's the minors and it happens.

I can live with this trade. The A's had an injury-prone, cash-hoovering potential liability on their hands. When he is able to pitch, he is among the best. Unfortunately, this isn't often enough to suit Beane. Or, I suspect, most A's fans.

Money Changes Everything

Revenue sharing money has changed the Billy Beane Athletics.

It is clear now, after the signing of 16-year-old Dominican pitcher Michael Inoa for a record $4.25 million, that the "Moneyball" era was borne more of necessity, the need to keep pace with competitors perceived as rich, than anything else. With revenue sharing money, Beane can make bold moves like this.

And that's fine, in fact, "Moneyball" explains how Beane looked at the A's balance sheet one day and saw red ink down the road, and Presto!, you have the Jeremy Brown signing.

But with the money comes higher expectations. People will expect Beane to beat Theo Epstein and the other stat-geek MBAs, and soon.

It's certainly possible, but sometimes these bold plays don't work out. Just ask the Yankees what happened to Brien Taylor.

Here is where the Beane genius tag will get tested. Nobody expected the A's to win when they were poor. Now that the landscape is evening out somewhat, people will expect a World Series appearance. Hell, they probably have all along.

The A's are still third from the bottom in terms of payroll. They are still technically "poor", but the Tampa Bay Rays, who are even poorer, currently lead the mighty Red Sox. I love the A's ability to find cheap talent where no other team other can. We will see if their more expensive picks like Inoa and Jemile Weeks work out.

For now, Inoa will work in the Dominican Summer League, along with well over 500 other pitchers, many of whom will be barely 17 years old. The average age in the DSL is 19. We will see if Inoa can rise above the competition here and justify the A's massive investment.

Top 10 uncommon occurrences in M's July 1 win

1. Willie Bloomquist drives in a run.

2. Willie Bloomquist drives in the winning run.

3. Willie Bloomquist drives in a walk-off game-winning run.

4. Willie Bloomquist hits one into the gap for his first extra-base hit of the year, until everyone realizes he only need reach first base to win the game. He is officially credited with a single.

5. The Mariners come from behind.

6. Chants of "Let's Go Blue Jays" drown out M's fans on Canada Day (that hasn't happened for years).

7. Richie Sexson hits a home run (that hasn't happened since May, though nobody is sure which May we are talking about).

8. Richie Sexson steals a base (what, he's trying to make up the whole season in one night?)

9. Adrian Beltre hits a homer in the same game as Sexson (that hasn't much since the two free agents were signed two winters ago and fans all had dingers dancing in their heads).

10. Jose Lopez makes a critical and near game-blowing error (oh, wait a minute, that happens all the time or seems like it). 

Guzman Moving On Up

A's fans can toss another name into the third base mix: Jesus Guzman recently got the call-up from Midland to Sacramento. The 24-year-old Guzman hit a robust .359 13 69 for the RockHounds and split time between second and third base prior to the call-up. He has manned third base in Sacramento since the promotion.

The vigilant A's picked up Guzman as a free agent late of the Mariners organization, for whom he hit .301 25 112 in 2007 for the M's High Desert affiliate. I am not making up these numbers. Guzman had to be considered a top Hi-A prospect when the M's let him go, and he only got better in AA for the A's.

Guzman is a true utilityman, having played every infield position, left and right field for High Desert. Meanwhile, the A's seem content to limit Guzman to second and third base. In nine Sacramento contests, Guzman is hitting .222 1 5. His fielding at third for the River Cats has been suspect at best, showing that he still needs to learn the position full-time.

If the A's are looking to up the ante in their third base competition, they may be barking up the wrong tree with Guzman, top prospect or no. He has above-average power and makes good contact. Unfortunately, 2008 was not Guzman's first trip to AA. The Mariners actually had him repeat AA in 2006 as a 22-year-old, and then demoted him to Hi-A in 2007.

While I love the fact that Guzman can rake, the idea in the minors is to move up, not down. Repeating a grade is not a good sign, while being sent down a level is inexcusable prospect-wise. The not-bad news is that Guzman is still young for AA and AAA. Obviously the A's saw something in Guzman, I am just wondering what it was. The M's were OK with letting him go as a free agent, so we will see. If Guzman makes it to the Show and continues to hit and show versatility as a position player, Beane (again) is a genius. If not, then, hey, he guessed wrong.