Define "Success"

Much has been made of the "Moneyball" Oakland A's, the team that succeeded in the Art of Winning an Unfair Game. So much so that it verges on the ad nauseum. The emphasis on stats such as OBP and BABIP and EQMLVR has created a backlash among baseball writers who collectively never learned to count past ten. The year 2007 marked a downturn for the Moneyball A's, as they failed to make the playoffs and watched as the high-payroll Red Sox, a team that had followed them into Sabremetrics, won their second World Series of the New Millenium. In the off-season, Billy Beane, who did not write the book "Moneyball", dealt Nick Swisher, an A if ever there was one, and Dan Haren, a classic low-cost Beane acquisition, to re-tool their farm system.

Were the moves a success?

As of this writing, the A's boast the 13th best farm system in baseball, with a collective winning percentage of .515. Omit the short-season Northwest League Vancouver Canadians and the organization moves up a couple of rungs. This marks an improvement over last year's farm record of .477.

LHP Gio Gonzalez, who I had considered the steal of the Swisher trade, has been beset by wildness and gopher-itis in Sacramento. His record of 3-6 5.51 will not earn him a call-up anytime soon. OF Carlos Gonzalez was not exactly tearing up the PCL either. Ryan Sweeney is hurt. LHP Brett Anderson could turn out to be the steal in the Haren deal. Anderson has great command for a 20-year-old and is far ahead of schedule. Recently promoted to AA, Anderson struck out 12 in his first start, a six-inning outing, and walked zero. I had Anderson ranked as the fourth-best starter in the Class A Midwest League, where he went 8-4 2.21. I had only P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortensen of the Cardinals and Tyler Robertson of the Twins ranked higher, and Walters and Mortensen were both 22. Robertson, like Anderson, pitched in the Midwest League at 19 last year. The Twins are proceeding more cautiously with Robertson. He remains in Hi-A, with the Fort Myers Miracle of the Florida State League, while the A's saw enough of Anderson in Stockton (9-4 4.14) to promote him to the AA Midland RockHounds. Fautino De Los Santos, once touted as a potential star in the making, will miss the rest of 2008 and most of 2009 after undergoing the dreaded Tommy John Surgery.

LHP Dana Eveland has settled into the A's rotation nicely, thank you very much: 6-5 3.34. His command is not the best, but he keeps the ball down (3 HRs in 97 innings). LHP Greg Smith has cracked the starting rotation (4-6 3.69).

There were others in the Haren and Swisher deals. For example, OF Aaron Cunningham, another highly-rated prospect in the Haren deal, is .282 5 20 with the RockHounds. The ubiquitous 1B Chris Carter has 20 HRs with the Hi-A Stockton Ports. Want more evidence that Beane plundered the D-Backs' system? The Snakes are a collective .430. Of course, they are trying to Win Now, and Beane is trying to stay competitive. Beane has beefed up his ML squad. They are only 3.5 games behind the mighty Angels, after all. So I would call the deals a success.

Potential maiden call-ups for the second half of the season:

IF Cliff Pennington: A homegrown 2B/SS, Pennington will play in the Futures Game July 13. He is hitting .271 1 8 with the River Cats. His SB efficiency in AAA, however, is way down.

3B Jeff Baisley: Another homegrown player, Baisley was a Futures Game participant last year. The 25-year-old could get the call should Jack Hannahan continue to struggle and Eric Chavez continue to nurse a right shoulder that looks like a bomb went off.

Two Solid Starts in a Row, Really

Well, looks like the cross-country flight didn't bend Erik Bedard's back too much out of whack–he was worried, we weren't–so he gets the nod Sunday in San Diego. He'll face Padres stud Jake Peavy, who is 5-4 with a 2.77 ERA for the last-place Padres. Both Seattle and San Diego have 50 losses.

Halfway to a hundred and halfway into the season. The M's are 84 games into the season, the Pads 82. 

Without that half season, Sunday's matchup would be marquee stuff, ace v. ace, may the best radar-gunslinger win. Instead, a sorta-woulda-coulda-shoulda affair at Petco. And strange as it is, Bedard will have to follow two solid performances from Jarod Washburn and Carlos Silva.

Yes, you read that right. Washburn and Silva, great jobs, back to back victories, pitching deep into the games. Translation: Washburn might yet be moved at the trade deadline and Silva, who broke a nine-game losing streak, can be a bit more of the leader in the locker room–something the team needs.

Now it is up to Bedard to give the M's their first sweep of the season and a fifth win in six games.

It could happen. 

The Padres might just be worse than the M's, though Seattle did leave 18 runners on base Friday night, a franchise record. Ten of those stranded base runners were in scoring position. That's not exactly the equivalent of being the pink of baseball health.

Speaking of pink, those powder-blue uniforms the M's wore Friday in a Padres turn-back-the-clock promotion made Ichiro look even more retro than 1978. He looked like he could have been suiting up with Shoeless Joe Jackson for the 1919 Black Sox World Series or maybe to be out there showing Ty Cobb a thing or two. 

As for 2008, Ichiro is still scuffling (.286) by his standards even with the switch back to RF. He might not make the All-Star team if Felix Hernandez comes back strong from his ankle injury, which is likely. The King will start Tuesday or Wednesday. 

No offense to Ichiro–love watching the guy–but maybe not making the all-stars while fellow countryman Kosuke Fukudome gets voted in as a Cubbie and represents Japan at the last All-Star Game Yankeee Stadium will be second-half motivation.

All Backed Up: Batista and Bedard

M's starter Miguel Batista didn't get out of the third inning Wednesday night at Shea. The Mets drubbed the Seattles 8-2.

Afterward, Batista talked to reporters and mentioned that his back was bothering him--a lot--then proceeded to say, hey, I'm not like some guys. I am pitching through the pain.

Hello, Erik Bedard.

While it's apparent that Batista is headed for the DL--giving all fans a break from watching games with the M's hopelessly trailing by the fourth and allowing the veteran to save face rather than disappear into long relief/mop-up--what's less clear is who pitches Sunday in San Diego. Bedard says he felt good during a bullpen session, then said he was concerned about what a cross-country flight might do to him and his own cranky back. 

Oh, come on. Something tells me no Mariners player gets a middle seat between passengers with wide butts, bad breath or both.

I am eager to hear how Batista blends in cross-country flight worries into his next interview. Give Batista the props of attempting to be a leader on a leaderless team. But the props stop there until he figures out how to stop giving up dingers.

Felix the King says he is fit enough to take the ball Sunday, but Jim Riggleman says, well, um, we haven't told him yet but he is not going out there too soon and that means Sunday. Like that clear, no-bull decision.

OK, so how about Tacoma? I checked Tuesday's box score and the three guys who pitched for the Rainiers finished with ERAs of 7.22, 6.21 and 7.82. 

Yikes.

The Truth about John McLaren

New Mets manager Jerry Manuel is getting early raves for loosening up his team, saying hi around the batting cage, imitating 50 cent, still reading Gandhi, getting Carlos Beltran to smile and getting third-bagger and Unofficial Heart and Voice of the Mets David Wright to feel more in sync. Willie Randolph is being taken to task, at least between the quote lines, as being too much the disciplinarian. 

Ridiculous. 

Losing 11-zip to the Mariners Tuesday is not exactly the laugher that Manuel, Wright, Beltran or the NYC papers had in mind.

Enough about that Mets' new manager. Let's talk about John McLaren. Yes, I know, Jim Rigglemen is above .500. Good deal, keep it up. But what catches the eye about the M's game Tuesday is what Raul Ibanez said afterward.

(OK, quick props to R.A. Dickey for his first win since September 2005 when he was with Texas and beat the Mariners. Someone in the Mariners front office should chart all potential hot weather in MLB cities between now and September because Dickey's knuckler moves great in the hot and humid air. Neither one occurs much at Safeco.)

So here is what Ibanez said. Read it twice. There's some (or maybe a lot) of pulldown about McLaren in there. Read and discuss:

"There's definitely more energy--energy that only winning can bring [NICE TRY, RAUL, BUT THE REST OF YOUR QUOTE BETRAYS YOUR POLITICALLY CORRECT STANCE]. I've been seeing more intensity on the field. I think guys are going out and playing the game hard, playing it right, doing what they're supposed to do. Their approach is better. I think we've had more discipline through aggression. It's not a passive discipline, it's an aggressive discipline at the plate, and I think that's helped."

Consider that Ibanez is the leader of the Mariners, at least among hitters. And that the M's, with Tuesday's laugher, are a whopping 3 and 2 under Riggleman

Mariners' Rotation, One Question at a Time

OK, let's see...Felix Hernandez pitches lights-out at Shea, hits the first AL pitcher grand slam in four decades, leaves the game due to an ankle injury one out before getting the official W (M's win, 5-2) but, small consolation, receives a huge ovation from Mets fans. A bigger consolation: An MRI shows no major damage. Felix rolled his ankle but doesn't sound like he will be out for long. 

One question: When does Felix start pinch-hitting. Maybe he and the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano can talk PH at the All-Star Game.

Jarod Washburn, I owe an apology. A blog entry or two ago, I equated Washburn with Erik Bedard. No fair...to Washburn. He has pitched solidly in his last four starts after a phone call/reach-out to the lefty's college coach, Tom Lechnir, at University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh (a !shout-out! to my brother Jim's alma mater and his adopted hometown). Lechnir knew immediately what to tell his former star to correct, mentioning "a little adjustment at the beginning [of the windup]," Washburn told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's John Hickey. 

One question: Who needs Mel Stottlemyre?

Well, maybe Carlos Silva, who is struggling so bad even the player-friendly, post-game show hosts on flagship KOMO-AM 1000 are poking fun at the ex-Twin's futility in his first Seattle season.

One question: Will there be a second Mariners season for Silva?

Miguel Batista might be replacing R.A. Dickey as the fifth start, which is only fitting in this futile year because Dickey replaced Batista three starts ago.

One question: Who's looking good down in Tacoma?

Last and, well, yeah, sort of least right now is Erik Bedard. He pulled himself after three innings in Atlanta, then said he sympathized with every person who has ever complained about back pain. Mariners fans with lumbar problems were not moved. Except to sift through MLB disabled lists and standings to see who needs a lefty starter.

One question: Anybody else look good on the mound at Triple A Tacoma? How about Double A Jackson?

Trouble on the Street

Okay, I give up. What's wrong with Huston Street?

The A's closer has coughed up big hits two nights in a row. Not good. The details really do not bear repeating here, but two home runs one night and a three-run double the next give cause for concern. True, there is no shame in getting lit up by Dan Uggla, but Street is supposed to be one of the league's elite closers. So what gives?

Street appears to be laboring with hitters this year, his pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) ratio drifting up to 4.103, the first time it has gone above the magic 4 number in his career. While strikeout pitchers and closers in general throw more pitches per batter, Street has always kept this number down in the 3.7-3.8 range. This tells me that Street is working harder to get batters out.

All of which would be fine if Street were mowing down hitters with blistering heat, striking out the side, and fist-pumping his way off the mound ala a record-setting Eric Gagne. But he isn't.

Street's K/W and K/9 are both down in 2008, 3.5 and 10.053 respectively. These are acceptable numbers for a closer, but still down from 2007 (5.25 and 11.34). K/W is down from 2006 (5.154). Again, I could live with Street's 2008 K/W and K/9. And I'm sure Billy Beane can.

Where Street is having the most trouble, however -- and this is more obvious than it seems -- is the gopher ball. Street's 6 dingers is a career high, and it's not even mid-season. So, even based on raw numbers, Street is surrendering home runs at a record pace (for him). Street's HR/9 ratio this year is alarming to say the least: 1.723 in 2008. That puts him in some pretty grim, unfamiliar territory.

Could anyone see this coming? Yes, but since Street was labeled an "elite" closer, we chose to ignore the warning signs. Take a look at Street's rising HR/9 ratio over his career: .345 (2005), .509 (2006), .9 (2007) -- an upward progression and a sign that all is not well on Huston Street. Street's home runs per fly ball (HR/F) ratio is similarly grim:

3.5294% (2005)

4.8780% (2006)

9.2593% (2007)

14.6341% (2008)

Yurg! League average HR/F is 10%. So either Street's HR/F will normalize in the second half, or Street's taters will spike. Since Beane rewarded Street with a $3 million contract this year, both better hope it's the former. There was talk of dealing Street in the off-season, but it never happened. This is a questionable signing, and will be for 2009 if things continue along this path.

Let's take a look at Street's ground ball to fly ball (G/F) ratio:

1.058824 (2005)

0.926829 (2006)

0.944444 (2007)

0.780488 (2008)

League average is 1.3. Street's G/F ratio has never been that good, but 2008's .78 puts him somewhere near league bottom. This tells me Street is having big problems keeping the ball down. Combined with the dropoffs in K/W, K/9 and HR/F, it adds up to a potential $3 million liability for Beane.

Much of Street's trouble with the big fly can be attributed to luck. Street's potential HR/9 ratio is 1.178. Unacceptable, but better than the real-world 1.723, which is just flat-out scary.

Street also needs to pitch better out of the stretch, a fact that manager Bob Geren could help in-game by just putting his closer in at the top of the inning, like a normal closer, instead of mid-inning. His insistence on having Street pitch 1 1/3 or 1 2/3 innings puts added pressure on his closer. Oakland has setup guys who are good enough to get the A's to the 9th inning and hand the ball over to Street.

But I'm sure Geren and Beane already know this.

Riggleman gets endorsement from LaRussa

Chicago sports columnist Mike Imrem told an instructive story while talking to KJR-AM 950's Mitch Levy this morning. Instructive and maybe even a bit hopeful about the Mariners' new manager.

Imrem recalled talking to LaRussa a few seasons back about ex-managers in the big leagues who deserve another shot, who should be working, who LaRussa wouldn't necessarily like to see in the opposing dugout.

LaRussa mentioned Jim Riggleman and the job the former Cubs manager (five seasons) did in 1998, taking the team to a wild-card finish and the playoffs.

"Well, he had a guy [Sammy Sosa] who hit 66 home runs for him that year," said Imrem.

So what, said LaRussa, "I had a guy who hit 70 and we didn't get there."

Sosa may have hit 66 but he was clearly not the team leader, rally-the-guys-around-him type.  Riggleman did have an all-time Cubs gamer, Mark Grace, on that team, but the rest of that Chicago roster was a head-scratcher if you are trying to figure out how it won 90 games and make the playoffs.

 

Courtesy of Baseball Almanac, here are the Cubs who played the most games by position that season: Scott Servais, C; Grace, IB, Mickey Morandini, 2B; Jeff Blauser, SS; Jose Hernandez, 3B; Henry Rodriguez, LF; Lance Johnson, CF; Sosa, RF. The starting rotation? Mark Clark, Geremi Gonzalez, Kevin Tapani, Steve Trachsel and a young Kerry Wood. 

See what I mean?

Riggleman did a superb managing job that summer--one highlight is getting his team to shake off a late-season potential meltdown game in which young outfielder Brant Brown dropped a routine fly ball that would have clinched a victory in Milwaukee but instead turned into an improbable Brewers win. If you know the Cubs and 1969 and, say, the black cat game or Don Young's center field misadventures, you understand Riggleman worked some serious if not flamboyant magic in 1998.

Couple of things: 1. The 1998 Cubs lost three straight to the Braves for an early exit from the postseason. I attended the third game of the series and the Cubs did not look sharp. 2. The next season the Cubs lost 95 games and Riggleman was fired the day after the last game, though it seems to me 1999 proved more that the Cubs were not playoff-caliber in 1998 rather than Riggleman not being a big-league skipper. Riggleman's downfall was his low-key demeanor that never resonated with Cubs fans.

He's no Bobby Valentine or even Willie Randolph. But anyone with Tony LaRussa's respect is worth considering for 2009.

Jumping on the Antonetti bandwagon

The U.S.S Mariner blog has started a persuasive campaign for Chris Antonetti as the new GM here in Seattle, complete with resume, and provided timely reporting from Indians MLB.com beat writer Anthony Castrovince on Antonetti's statement about how happy he is Cleveland as an assistant GM waiting for Mark Shapiro to move out of the GM office.

Let's just call that Shapiro-in-the-sky thinking. 

Antonetti might be happy in Cleveland (is that an oxymoron, at least for, oh, say, Manny Ramirez?) but the succession timetable is fuzzy. A clear-headed handing of all keys to the Mariners kingdom–and a farm system rated in at least the top third of baseball–is worth his looking and the Mariners' Chuck Armstrong asking.

A hopeful thought: Antonetti was part of trading for–I say outright fleecing–playoffs second baseman Asrubal Cabrera from the Mariners. Cabrera was a lights-out, gonna-make-the-bigs player from the moment he played Single A for Everett's Aquasox about 30 miles north of Safeco. He was sent down to Triple A recently to unkink his batting approach, but he will be back. And if the Indians give up on the 2B, the M's should jump at reacquiring him.

 Antonetti knows the M's farm system. Let's hope he likes what he sees, and, hey, why not dream, that Jeff Clement starts to drill some dingers. Good, young players (with some seriously live arms) can be hard to resist, especially if you get all of the keys. 

Fired Up in Seattle

Whoa, this blogging about a last-place ball club is no lackluster matter this week. At least in the AL West. After firing GM Bill Bavasi and his history-dripped baseball name on Monday, the M's flamed manager John McLaren on Thursday.

The (relatively) good news for McLaren? He didn't get Willie Randolphed. The Mariners fired McLaren before he boarded a team plane headed for a weekend series in Atlanta. McLaren asked for a day before talking to the media by teleconference. Interim manager Jim Riggleman (yes, same guy who managed the Cubs and Padres), jumped on the jet without any media gab. 

Randolph, of course, was fired earlier this week after flying cross-country for a Mets-LA series opener in Dodger Stadium, only to win (inching the Mets to one game under .500 before Jerry Manuel lost in his debut the next night) the game, then find Mets GM Omar Minaya at the hotel ready to let him go.

Minaya said it was standard procedure, firing a manager late night and explained he never cans a manager still in uniform.

I hope at least Randolph was wearing some nice threads, probably, judging from the stylish way he handled 2B for the Yankees all those years. 

Willie R is by far the people's choice in Seattle. They would be happy if the M's hired him right now. And it might not be that bad of an idea, since Randolph will get another job soon enough--hey, Jim Riggleman got another job. Randolph might prefer to collect his Mets check and let Manuel (another ex-Chicago manager getting a second chance running the dugout this week)  tiptoe the media land mines in NYC. OK, fine, play some golf, clean the garage, kick back with the fam, let's talk about you was a compass on your uni starting after the All-Star Break.

Or better yet, as an AL all-star coach (and Seattle uniform) for one last shindig at Yankee Stadium. Now who is managing the AL team and might he go for that swing at the Mets and Yanks? ...

Lefties are Not Right

Felix is still Felix, racking up nine K's in seven and a third, including Mike Jacobs and Dan Uggla back to back to escape a base-loaded, one-out jam in the sixth. The Mariners won 5-4 to break an eight-game–eight!–losing streak at Safeco. Mariners fans savored the night. 

But while Felix is Felix, Erik Bedard is, well, Jarod Washburn.

Sports talk-show hosts and even ex-Mariners/Yankees relievers have seen just about enough from Bedard, who gave up the ball after hitting the 100-pitch count in a Saturday night loss. Most anyone watching could see that Bedard was happy to walk off into the dugout and showers. He has spent most of the season denying he is the ace.

You got that right. Felix Hernadez jumped over .500 with his sixth win Tuesday. His ERA is 2.87

Bedard is 4-4, pitched well in stretches, but his ERA stands at 4.14. Bedard IP count is 67 and change. Hernandez is at 96. Carlos Silva has pitched 88-plus, much to the dismay of M's fans. More than a few sensible observers in the media are already suggesting that maybe it's time to unload Bedard.

George Sherrill has 22 saves. One of the minor leaguers in the Bedard trade is 6-1 in the minors. Adam Jones went 2-for-4 last night and is learning on the job in CF. His average is 256 with 15 doubles. He will succeed. Baltimore is one game over .500; Jones will be given the time and support to become a star.

Speaking of CF, Ichiro is back in RF. See earlier blog Lineup Fix, Part 1 to understand that is a Happy Development here at  TheALWestBlog.com.

Hmm, Ichiro in RF. Jones would look awfully good in CF right now, Sherrill would be closing and Bedard wouldn't be driving the talk on local radio.

Felix is Felix. Bedard is Washburn. Washburn is Bedard. 

Wrong Coast?

The media spent most of Tuesday morning making a fuss about how the New York Mets fired Willie Randolph in the middle of the night via a press release. It’s typical East Coast media bias. You think that if one of the AL West managers was fired in the middle of the night, any of the mass media would care? Perhaps some in LA would bash the Angels, but few in New England talk radio or NY television even know who John McLaren and Ron Washington are (current managers of Seattle and Texas, respectively, who have been already rumored this season to be on the verge of losing their job).

Sure, some of that East Coast media might know the manager of the Angels. They should as Mike Scioscia was an All-Star catcher, been at his job for almost a decade, won a World Series and is the winningest manager in Angles history. In 2008, Scioscia appears to be doing another great job. Given the money the Angles spend on their roster, you might not be that impressed, thinking that all Scioscia has to do is fill out the lineup card. But consider this, the Angels’ record for the most of the season has been among the top five in the majors, yet only one player is among the top four vote-getters at his position for the All-Star game. The Angels, however, won’t have a starter in the All-Star Game if voting stays the same for the next couple of weeks. Vladimir Guerrero, fourth in outfield voting, would be the closest the Angles could come.

The reason? Some more East Coast bias. Seven of the top nine starters, according to the fan balloting, are from the Red Sox of Yankees. Wouldn’t it be great if the East Coast media stopped complaining about the fact that the Mets fired their manager without inviting the media to the party -- at least long enough to extol the virtues of players such as Mariners second baseman Jose Lopez or Angles first baseman Casey Kotchman.

Lineup Fix, Part 3 ... We Interrupt This Blog ...

Before working through the second half of the Mariner's batting lineup and how to make it better for 2009, here's the Fix of Fixes.

Bill Bavasi was fired minutes ago as manager of the M's. His tenure will not be fondly remembered by Seattle fans, whether fair or not. The size of his head and his deep-roots baseball names will be what is most recalled. 

The move was necessary, though late by weeks if not months.

Well, OK, years.

I was worried about Bavasi the day he indicated that SABR stats really didn't quite matter at that much to him as human-eyeball scouting. Sorry, I know scouts, I am friends with scouts, I have served as a Division 1 college scout. Gut instinct is important but in today's game so is every and any form of analysis you can bring to the table. 

Especially as GM. Savor those handwritten or all-caps typed-up reports from baseball lifers, OK by me. Just don't discount the guy at the end of the hall with his laptops humming (usually more than one crunching numbers) as a necessary evil. Embrace the New.

Need examples: Well, how about the Red Sox and A's? One overcame decades of frustration with SABR hires. The other franchise keeps finding ways to stay in the pennant on its well-known low budget and what is practically a mirage of a fan base.

The new guy--or woman, hey, it's 2008 going on 2016--needs to crunch numbers for breakfast.

Embrace the New.

The Weeks in Review

I watched A's first-round pick Jemile Weeks play in the College World Series yesterday. Weeks crushed the second pitch he saw from Georgia starter Trevor Holder into the right center field bleachers at Rosenblatt Stadium. It turned out to be the electric Weeks' only highlight from the game. Weeks is raw and will need some seasoning at Stockton, Midland and Sacramento (in that order, with no skipping) before he can be ready for prime time.

In the field, the 5'9" Weeks makes the routine plays, but a hard hit grounder that bounced high off P Chris Hernandez went over his head into the outfield. It was hard to tell whether a taller 2B (or even Jemile's brother Rickie), could have made that play. But it appeared as though Weeks adjusted and got in line with the ball, but wasn't tall enough to come up with it.

Weeks' defense at second is said to be flawed, and I can see why. Already scouts are talking about a possible move to CF for the youngster. Weeks' range and weak arm will play better in CF. Though Weeks smashed that Holder pitch, scouts say he is not going to be a power hitter in the pros, like Rickie. He projects as more of a CF anyway, which makes him an A-typical A's organization player. Of interest was the As' 11th round pick, Christopher Berroa, an outfielder from Chipola Junior College in Camden, NJ. Berroa also projects as and (unlike Jemile) plays CF. Could it be the A's see center as a weakness?

Of course, we're talking the Billy Beane Athletics here, so really OBP is the only thing that matters. Both Jemile Weeks and Berroa excel at getting on base, and for that reason alone, they fit in this organization.

M's Line Fix, Part 2

Quick update on the Lee Elia Give 'Em Yell Experiment with Mariners hitters: The mighty M's are averaging two whole runs a game in Elia's first three games.

Progress: Well, Seattle did win Wednesday on a ninth-inning single to score Ichiro, who had stolen second and third to make it easier. The team did rack up seven singles and a triple, up three hits from Tuesday's loss.

OK, let's see what Elia's charges can do against Shawn Hill (0-3, 4.35) and the Nationals at Safeco on Friday. There are rumors that Elia is already concentrating more on younger hitters or at least guys who will be planned for a roster spot next season.

Which poses a fan-tester of a question to set up Lineup Fix, Part 2: Do you keep Adrian Beltre in the lineup? He has not produced the dream numbers hoped when signed as a free agent. But we knew that before he even swung one bat as an American Leaguer, didn't we?

Even so, I don't throw Beltre under the bus for three reasons. One is Beltre is a superb third baseman and the Mariners pitchers, especially the starters, need his glove. Defense is good, repeat after me. Two is Beltre will produce; he is putting much pressure on himself right now and that is going to continue until, well, the Mariners decide to follow all the segments of Lineup Fix. 

Three, Matt Tuiasosopo isn't ready for the majors yet.

Yet. Tuiasosopo hit his first Triple A homer this week but still needs to solve righthanders. He will, and his MLB offensive numbers will be more than enough to let him grow as a fielder.

So if Beltre does another first-half of 2008 (.222, 13 dingers but only 28 ribbies going into the weekend) next season, look for him to be traded midseason for some prospect. Fans will love Tuiasosopo and already dig the name as the young prospect's family manned the QB position at the University of Washington during glory years.

Of course, if Beltre were to, say, suddenly gets hot and a contender wants him this summer, do it, I say. Maybe move Jose Lopez to 3B to see if he can pick it any better over there. Let me be the first to suggest Beltre to the Phillies. I wonder if Bill Bavasi has Pat Gillick on speed-dial?

If Beltre stays, when Jeff Clement comes back up, move Beltre to either fifth, sixth or second (that last move only if Jeremy Reed doesn't work out from Lineup Fix, Part 1). Let Clement bat cleanup as DH and part-time catcher. Hey, Ryne Sandberg was something like 1-for-44 in his early MLB days and we all know Willie Mays didn't get a hit for more than 20 ABs as a rookie.

Now for the rest of Lineup Fix, Part 2: While Jose Lopez is putting together a reliable season at the plate, come on, his defense is not a pennant ingredient. I say bring up Tug Hulett from Tacoma to put enough of a scare in Lopez to motivate extra fielding practice, telling him that batting .300 is not as vital as turning the double play and gloving the routine grounders. 

Most of all, Lopez needs to get a better jump on balls (qualifier here, like, somehow I think I could do so, yeah right, but he's the major leaguer and I'm the blogger so that is part of both jobs). Maybe seeing Tug Hullet hustle and scramble here, there and everywhere, will put a bit more jump into Lopez.

Lineup Fix, Part 1

The newest tenure of Lee Elia as Mariners hitting coach? Following a 3-run drubbing of the Jays on Monday, the M's came back with three singles, a double, two walks and a homer for a grand total, drum roll, of one run in Tuesday's loss.

Not exactly Jeff Pentland numbers, but, hey, give Elia a little time to yell at his hitters.

But The AL West Blog has no time or patience for a new Mariners lineup. Jeremy Reed hit that home run Tuesday, a deep shot to RF off a 98-mph fastball from Dustin McGowan. He also drew a walk and generally looks comfortable up at the plate.

You might not say the same about his comfort zone playing right. Carlos Silva looked dismayed that Mariners right fielder missed a hard shot from Matt Stairs that sailed over Reed's head. Note to Silva: Hard-hit balls tend to do that sort of thing. Note to self: Maybe Reed is struggling with angles and the best routes to catching hard liners vs. flyballs. He might actually be a better fit in CF.

Hmm, move Ichiro back to RF? Ichiro certainly has the better arm and, maybe, is it possible, that Ichiro will have less on his mind in RF and be able to return to form as a .300 hitter? His .291 has never seemed so dismal on pretty any other player in MLB history.

So Lineup Fix, Part 1: Keep Ichiro as leadoff man. Move Reed to CF and the second spot in the batting order with a strict plan of getting on base, walking as much as possible and always working the pitch count. For now, Ibanez as the No. 3 hitter and leftfielder feels like the loyal thing to do. But Ibanez has sat before to let prospects play, and it needs to happen again this season. Pencil in Wladimir Baletien for, oh, the trading deadline when Ibanez goes to the White Sox or maybe the Rays as fourth outfielder/occasional DH/reliable pinch hitter. 

You can only go so far with this loyalty thing. 

Mariners lack fear factor in lineup

The view from Way Down Here for the Mariners is, well, way down. Eighteen games below .500 way down and 15-and-a-half games behind the Angels going into Tuesday's games. Worst record in baseball. All this before the middle of June.

Mike Greenberg, the ESPN radio host and never one to avoid self-effacement, was making big fun of himself last week: He picked the Mariners to win the World Series. 

This season.

So what to do? The M's front-0ffice decided, time to fire the hitting coach, trading in 61-year-old Jeff Pentland (he of the ex-Cub factor) and hiring 70-year-old Lee Elia (an ex-Cub manager known for his profanity-laced tirade against Chicago's north side fans; rate him a double ex-Cub factor).

Elia is expected to bring a different voice (translation: he will yell more and get in players' faces more than Pentland) to the batting cage. But there is one fact here that lots of fans and even the front office seems to miss. Last year's Mariners team won nine more games than would be expected from a standard projection based on runs they scored and runs they gave up. So 88 wins last year was a mirage. 

Lee Elia, a baseball lifer and underrated as a manager, can't fix what is at the core of this team's offensive fits and starts. There is no hitter in the lineup that other clubs fear. Ichiro? Maybe on the bases this year, not at the plate. After that, flatliners. 

Ellis primed for big second half

Athletics 2B Mark Ellis dazzled with his all-around play last year, especially in the field. In the American League, Placido Polanco may have won the Golden Glove award by not committing a single error, but Ellis had much better range (5.48 chances per 9 innings in 2007) and only committed 5 errors for a fielding percentage of .994. Only a handful of second basemen in the American League were close to Ellis in terms of range: B.J. Upton (and we all know how well that turned out), Asdrubal Cabrera, who didn't play a full year, and Robinson Cano. Texas 2B Ian Kinsler actually has better range than Ellis, getting almost 6 chances per 9 innings in 2007, but he committed 17 errors for a fielding percentage of .977. This year, Kinsler has even more chances and is booting even more balls. Ah, youth ... In the NL, only Kaz Matsui and Adam Kennedy are comparable in terms of range.

Ellis has struggled at the plate so far in 2008, hitting .234 6 22. However, he hit a walk-off grand slam to beat the Angels on Sunday. Does this signal a season turnaround for Ellis? He has been making good contact, striking out only 24 times on the year. He has an exceptional batting eye, walking more than he strikes out. So what has been the problem? Ellis seems to be hitting everything up in the air, and the balls aren't dropping. At the one-third mark of the season, Ellis had a Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .243, and only 6% of his fly balls went over the fence. At age 31, maybe his power numbers are heading south, but I think that in the second half of the season, the As' 2B's numbers will go up as he hits more line drives and more long flies.

More troubling is the fact that Ellis' range in the field is down this year from 2007. He is still among the elite as far as the glove is concerned, but in 2007 he stood out from the pack. While I am sure Ellis' slow start has nothing to do with the As' exercise of a $5 million option to keep him for 2008, I sure hope Ellis is not "cashing out", and will respond with the great second half of which we know he is capable.

"Figures don't lie and a liar never figures."

Can Josh Hamilton pitch?

If Josh Hamilton was really Superman, wouldn’t he be able to throw three innings out of the bullpen every day? Or perhaps pitch a complete game every fourth day? Unfortunately for the Texas Rangers, centerfielder Hamilton is just a Triple Crown threat and the feel-good story of the 2008 baseball season.

The Texas pitching staff is killing any chance that Hamilton might have a winning a MVP award. Five years ago, Alex Rodriguez won the AL MVP even though the Rangers finished last, but A-Rod is just one of a handful of players who have captured the honor while playing on a losing team. A-Rod’s MVP was the fifth in Ranger history – the other four all came during seasons in which Texas posted a winning record (including the only three seasons in which Texas has won its division).

Just how bad is the Rangers pitching? It stinks, and it is a miracle that the Rangers are hovering around .500. In eight games in June, the Rangers have given up 72 runs. That means opponents are averaging nine runs per game and that Hamilton, Michael Young, Milton Bradley and company have to really produce if the Rangers want to compete in the AL West. The starters are weak and the bullpen was worse in the 10-game home stand that just ended. The Rangers have the worst team ERA in the Majors at 5.05, which is 0.23 worse than any one else. They’ve give up 380 runs, which are 48 more than any other team (60 more than any other AL squad). In addition, Texas has walked more hitters than any other team in baseball and had its pitchers throw more relief innings.

Welcome

This post officially kicks off the start of The AL West Blog, This is the 5th blog launched in a network of 6 divisional blogs, as it joins the The AL East Blog, The NL Central Blog, The AL Central Blog, and The NL East Blog as part of the No Bias Network. Our goal is to be your one-stop shop for anything AL West related. Whether you use this site to follow your team or keep an eye on your rivals, we hope you enjoy.

I would like to do a short introduction of all the writers on staff here. We will have one writer representing each team in the division. These writers will do there best to keep the readers up to date on all the current affairs of their individual teams.

The Staff:

A's - Angelo Quaranta
Angelo is a lawyer living and working in Pittsburgh, Pa. He is also a member of the JurRotis Rotisserie league comprised entirely of lawyers. Despite the fact that he begins preparing for his draft in November, Angelo insists he is not obsessed with numbers. "Preoccupied is more accurate," he says. Prior to attending law school, Angelo worked as a newspaperman for many, many years, and then he came to his senses.

Angels - needed
If you are interested in representing the Angels in this blog please contact me at nobiasnetwork@gmail.com

Mariners - Bob Condor
Bob is a freelance writer who covers sports and fitness for national magazines and websites. Based in Seattle, he writes a fitness column for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and occasionally contributes to its sports pages. He is former Sports Editor of the Chicago Tribune and Sunday sports editor at the New York Daily News. Bob is executive editor of the NFL site, KnowHuddle.com, and has authored six books, including "Michael Jordan's 50 Greatest Games" and he contributed work to "The Whole Baseball Catalog." His articles have appeared in Baseball America, Sport, Esquire, Playboy, Life, Parade, Self, Outside and Shape magazines and websites. He lives in the Seattle area.

Rangers - Mark Zeske
I actually covered the Rangers on a regular basis in the early 1980s when I was editor of the Arlington Daily News (including covering the game in which McDowell became the first Ranger to hit for the cycle). I was working for the Dallas Times Herald a couple of years later when Nolan Ryan threw his seven no-hitter and in the next day's paper was an entire page on Ryan's career (through baseball cards) that I wrote. I'm also just a big Ranger fan, and was in the stands with my wife when Kenny Rogers threw his perfect game and was in the outfield nosebleed seats with my seven-year-old son the last time the Rangers were in the playoffs (he's got his driver's license now). I have most recently covered auto racing on sportsillustrated.com