Duke's Imminent Collapse

RH Starter Justin Duchscherer has pitched admirably well this year. At the Break, Duke's stats stand out: 10-5, 1.82. He has exhibited great command and avoided the long ball. He is the classic low-cost Billy Beane acquisition. He is making just over a million bucks for the A's this year, not bad considering how much other teams pay for crap in this era.

But as long as the A's are dumping their pitching staff, they should sell high on Duke. His .213 BABIP will go up post-break. Duke has stranded 81 percent of men on base, a ratio that is likely to come down in the second half, meaning more runs and a higher ERA. I also see Duke's HRs allowed going up, as only 4% of fly balls have gone over the fence.

Duke has been lucky, but don't think that is a knock against him. He has got a great defense and pen behind him, and that counts for alot. It's just that luck has a way of evening out. Personally, I hope he goes 10-0 and 1.82 in the second half too. Chances are it will not happen. Duke now has to more or less anchor the A's staff, which speaks volumes about the new look A's. It will be a fun ride post-Break for the A's.