Sunday, June 29, 2008

Define "Success"

Much has been made of the "Moneyball" Oakland A's, the team that succeeded in the Art of Winning an Unfair Game. So much so that it verges on the ad nauseum. The emphasis on stats such as OBP and BABIP and EQMLVR has created a backlash among baseball writers who collectively never learned to count past ten. The year 2007 marked a downturn for the Moneyball A's, as they failed to make the playoffs and watched as the high-payroll Red Sox, a team that had followed them into Sabremetrics, won their second World Series of the New Millenium. In the off-season, Billy Beane, who did not write the book "Moneyball", dealt Nick Swisher, an A if ever there was one, and Dan Haren, a classic low-cost Beane acquisition, to re-tool their farm system.

Were the moves a success?

As of this writing, the A's boast the 13th best farm system in baseball, with a collective winning percentage of .515. Omit the short-season Northwest League Vancouver Canadians and the organization moves up a couple of rungs. This marks an improvement over last year's farm record of .477.

LHP Gio Gonzalez, who I had considered the steal of the Swisher trade, has been beset by wildness and gopher-itis in Sacramento. His record of 3-6 5.51 will not earn him a call-up anytime soon. OF Carlos Gonzalez was not exactly tearing up the PCL either. Ryan Sweeney is hurt. LHP Brett Anderson could turn out to be the steal in the Haren deal. Anderson has great command for a 20-year-old and is far ahead of schedule. Recently promoted to AA, Anderson struck out 12 in his first start, a six-inning outing, and walked zero. I had Anderson ranked as the fourth-best starter in the Class A Midwest League, where he went 8-4 2.21. I had only P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortensen of the Cardinals and Tyler Robertson of the Twins ranked higher, and Walters and Mortensen were both 22. Robertson, like Anderson, pitched in the Midwest League at 19 last year. The Twins are proceeding more cautiously with Robertson. He remains in Hi-A, with the Fort Myers Miracle of the Florida State League, while the A's saw enough of Anderson in Stockton (9-4 4.14) to promote him to the AA Midland RockHounds. Fautino De Los Santos, once touted as a potential star in the making, will miss the rest of 2008 and most of 2009 after undergoing the dreaded Tommy John Surgery.

LHP Dana Eveland has settled into the A's rotation nicely, thank you very much: 6-5 3.34. His command is not the best, but he keeps the ball down (3 HRs in 97 innings). LHP Greg Smith has cracked the starting rotation (4-6 3.69).

There were others in the Haren and Swisher deals. For example, OF Aaron Cunningham, another highly-rated prospect in the Haren deal, is .282 5 20 with the RockHounds. The ubiquitous 1B Chris Carter has 20 HRs with the Hi-A Stockton Ports. Want more evidence that Beane plundered the D-Backs' system? The Snakes are a collective .430. Of course, they are trying to Win Now, and Beane is trying to stay competitive. Beane has beefed up his ML squad. They are only 3.5 games behind the mighty Angels, after all. So I would call the deals a success.

Potential maiden call-ups for the second half of the season:

IF Cliff Pennington: A homegrown 2B/SS, Pennington will play in the Futures Game July 13. He is hitting .271 1 8 with the River Cats. His SB efficiency in AAA, however, is way down.

3B Jeff Baisley: Another homegrown player, Baisley was a Futures Game participant last year. The 25-year-old could get the call should Jack Hannahan continue to struggle and Eric Chavez continue to nurse a right shoulder that looks like a bomb went off.

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